Pest Control Services: AI Market Discovery Index

Benchmark Summary

Orkin led the September 2026 benchmark with 43.8% valid recommendation coverage, ahead of Terminix at 42.3%, a gap of 1.5 points. Orkin and Terminix each declined 8.3 points in valid recommendation coverage from August 2026 to September 2026, the only month-over-month moves in the series large enough to be treated as more than normal variation.

Across the full series, Orkin moved from 57.8% in July 2026 to 43.8% in September 2026, and Terminix moved from 56.8% to 42.3%. Both declined in each of the two months since July 2026. Eight brands are significant decliners across the July–September period — Aptive, Arrow Exterminators, Bulwark, Orkin, Rentokil, Terminix, Truly Nolen, and Western Exterminator — and no brand posted a significant increase over that span. Hawx Pest Control and Massey Services were stable over the same period.

The benchmark began with 800 prompt-surface observations in each month and produced 454 qualified observations in September 2026 after qualification.

Current Benchmark at a Glance

Qualified surface breadth counts the six canonical AI/search surface families with at least one qualified observation: ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, AI Overviews, and AI Mode. The category leader's coverage declined in each tracked month, from 57.8% in July 2026 to 52.1% in August 2026 to 43.8% in September 2026.

For the strategic interpretation of this benchmark, read CiteWorks Studio's analysis of How AI Search Is Recommending Pest Control Services

Research Scope and Qualification

The public benchmark is narrower than the raw collection universe by design.

Brand-level percentages use the qualified observations as the public denominator, not the raw collection. AI Market Discovery Methodology

Current Brand Standings

The top two brands — Orkin and Terminix — dominate valid recommendation coverage at 43.8% and 42.3%, while every other tracked brand sits below 17%.

How to Read the Standings

• Presence rate is the share of qualified observations where the brand appears in any form.
• Valid recommendation coverage is the share of qualified observations where the brand appears in a valid recommendation shortlist.
• Top-three rate is the share of qualified observations where the brand appears among the top three recommendations.
• Rank-one rate is the share of qualified observations where the brand is the top-ranked recommendation.
• Net sentiment is the balance of positive over negative mentions, from -1.0 to 1.0.

For formulas and denominator rules, see AI Market Discovery Metric Definitions.

Recommendation Coverage Movement

No brand posted a significant increase across the July–September period, while eight of ten tracked brands declined significantly.

Orkin and Terminix each declined 8.3 points in September 2026 alone, a move classified as beyond normal month-to-month variation for both.

Largest Decline: Terminix

Terminix's valid recommendation coverage fell from 56.8% in July 2026 to 42.3% in September 2026, a decline of 14.5 points. Its top-three rate fell from 49.5% in July 2026 to 38.1% in September 2026.

Significant Decliners: Aptive, Arrow Exterminators, Bulwark, Orkin, Rentokil, Truly Nolen, Western Exterminator

Orkin declined from 57.8% in July 2026 to 43.8% in September 2026, and moved down in each of the two months since baseline. Rentokil fell from 24.9% to 16.1%. Aptive dropped from 23.7% to 16.3%. Bulwark fell from 9.6% to 3.7%, with its presence rate dropping from 10.1% to 5.3%. Western Exterminator declined from 7.0% to 2.9%. Truly Nolen fell from 9.2% to 5.7%, though it rose slightly from 4.8% in August 2026. Arrow Exterminators held flat from August to September 2026 at 8.2%.

Two brands show divergent patterns: Hawx Pest Control and Massey Services both improved modestly, though from small bases.

Category Leader: Orkin

Orkin led with 43.8% valid recommendation coverage in September 2026, ahead of Terminix at 42.3%. Its rank-one rate of 20.5% led the category, down from 34.5% in July 2026.

Recommendation Placement Snapshot

Coverage alone does not show how prominently a brand is recommended. The leading brands show distinct placement patterns:

Orkin's rank-one rate of 20.5% exceeds Terminix's 17.2%, meaning close coverage masks a meaningful first-choice gap. Both brands saw their top-three rates drop by roughly 12 points, but Orkin's rank-one decline was much steeper — from 34.5% to 20.5% — while Terminix's rank-one rate actually rose from 15.0% to 17.2%.

Buyer-Intent Distribution

All qualified observations in both months fell into the brand discovery and consideration class.

The current public series measures brand-discovery journeys and does not yet contain qualified observations in the pricing and value or multi-brand comparison classes.

Historical Measurement Record

Orkin has retained the coverage lead in all three months, but its lead has narrowed from 15.2 points over Terminix in July 2026 to 1.5 points in September 2026.

Evidence and Source Layer

The benchmark is built from prompt-level observations that retain the query, AI/search surface, answer, brand outcome, recommendation placement, sentiment, and, where exposed, citations or attributable evidence sources. Source presence is evidence about the information environment. It is not automatically proof that the source caused the recommendation.

Scope Boundaries

This public benchmark does not measure market share, attributable sales, every possible AI response, organic-search ranking, social mention volume, private or sponsored channels, or causality from a metric movement alone.

About This Benchmark

The LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery Index tracks how AI assistants discover, evaluate, and recommend brands across a vertical. It is an evergreen benchmark updated monthly.

• AI Market Discovery Methodology
• AI Market Discovery Metric Definitions
• AI Market Discovery Research Standards
• Modeled AI Authority Value

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