Gap Insurance: AI Market Discovery Index

Tracking how AI platforms recommend gap insurance. This public AI Market Discovery Index is updated monthly since July 2026.

By Mark Huntley, J.D.Growth Strategist & AI Discovery Analyst

7 minutes read

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On this page

01Benchmark Summary
02Current Benchmark at a Glance
03Research Scope and Qualification
04Current Brand Standings
05How to Read the Standings
06Recommendation Coverage Movement
07Largest Decline: Progressive RV Insurance
08Category Leader: USAA
09Recommendation Placement Snapshot
10Buyer-Intent Distribution
11Historical Measurement Record
12Evidence and Source Layer

Benchmark Summary

USAA led the Gap Insurance benchmark in September 2026 with valid recommendation coverage of 57.9%, compared with 74.1% at the July 2026 baseline. State Farm held second place at 54.6%, a gap of 3.3 percentage points behind USAA. Travelers followed at 51.9%.

No brand posted a significant baseline-to-current increase in valid recommendation coverage this period. The largest baseline-to-current decline was Progressive RV Insurance, down 17.8 percentage points, from 39.2% in July 2026 to 21.4% in September 2026. All ten tracked brands finished September 2026 below their July 2026 baseline level. Two additional entities, American Family and Progressive, were tracked only in August 2026 under those names and are classified as stable because no baseline or current-period figure exists for direct comparison.

August 2026 was an increase month for six of the ten baseline brands. September 2026 reversed that gain and pushed every tracked brand's coverage below its July baseline, extending rather than reversing the category's overall downward trajectory across the three-month series.

AI recommendation trend

valid recommendation coverage, Jul 2026 to Sep 2026

USAA57.9%
State Farm54.6%
Travelers51.9%
Allstate37.5%
Nationwide32.2%
Farmers30.5%
Liberty Mutual27.9%
Erie Insurance27.4%
Progressive RV Insurance21.4%
American Family Insurance16.4%
American Family0.0%
Progressive0.0%

Current Benchmark at a Glance

Measure	Jul 2026	Sep 2026	Movement
Qualified benchmark observations	518	416	Down 102
Tracked brands	10	10	Same count, different composition
Qualified surface breadth	6	6	No change
Recommendation-shaped answer share	40.2%	32.5%	Down 7.7 points
Valid recommendation shortlist share	72.0%	57.7%	Down 14.3 points
Leader by valid recommendation coverage	USAA	USAA	Stable at both endpoints; State Farm led briefly in August 2026

August 2026 sat between these two months with 302 qualified observations and higher recommendation metrics, including a 41.4% recommendation-shaped answer share and a 78.1% valid recommendation shortlist share.

Qualified surface breadth counts the canonical AI surface families with at least one qualified observation: ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, Perplexity, AI Overviews, and AI Mode. All six families were represented in all three months.

The brand list held at 10 tracked brands in each month, though the composition shifted. July 2026 and September 2026 tracked American Family Insurance and Progressive RV Insurance as standalone entities; August 2026 replaced them with American Family and Progressive, respectively.

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For the strategic interpretation of this benchmark, read CiteWorks Studio's analysis of How AI Search Is Recommending Gap Insurance

Research Scope and Qualification

The public benchmark is narrower than the raw collection universe by design. The table below shows how observations were processed in each month.

Research stage	Jul 2026	Sep 2026	What it represents
Source prompt-surface observations	800	800	Total prompts collected across AI surfaces
Unique questions	647	637	Distinct questions after deduplication
Brand / competitor mentions	800	800	Prompts mentioning at least one brand
Relevant observations	566	460	Prompts relevant to the vertical
Irrelevant observations	234	340	Prompts outside the vertical scope
Qualified benchmark observations	518	416	Public denominator after all filtering

Brand-level percentages use the qualified observations as the public denominator, not the raw collection. See the AI Market Discovery Methodology for full details.

Current Brand Standings

This table is the primary current-month benchmark view, sorted by valid recommendation coverage.

Brand	Presence rate	Valid recommendation coverage	Top-three rate	Rank-one rate	Net sentiment
USAA	97.8%	57.9%	20.0%	7.2%	0.7
State Farm	98.8%	54.6%	33.7%	23.1%	0.6
Travelers	92.1%	51.9%	17.5%	8.6%	0.6
Allstate	90.4%	37.5%	5.5%	0.2%	0.4
Farmers	73.3%	30.5%	1.2%	0.0%	0.5
Liberty Mutual	73.1%	27.9%	1.4%	0.0%	0.4
Erie Insurance	46.4%	27.4%	4.1%	1.7%	0.8
Nationwide	65.4%	32.2%	5.1%	0.7%	0.6
Progressive RV Insurance	49.3%	21.4%	13.5%	0.2%	0.5
American Family Insurance	39.7%	16.4%	2.2%	0.7%	0.5

How to Read the Standings

Presence rate is the share of qualified observations in which the brand is mentioned at all.
Valid recommendation coverage is the share of qualified observations in which the brand receives a valid recommendation.
Top-three rate is the share of qualified observations in which the brand appears among the top three recommended options.
Rank-one rate is the share of qualified observations in which the brand is the first recommendation.
Net sentiment scores the tone of brand mentions on a scale from negative to positive.

For formulas and denominator rules, see AI Market Discovery Metric Definitions.

Recommendation Coverage Movement

Brand	Jul 2026	Sep 2026	Movement since baseline
Allstate	54.2%	37.5%	Down 16.7 points
American Family Insurance	23.0%	16.4%	Down 6.6 points
Erie Insurance	41.9%	27.4%	Down 14.5 points
Farmers	40.5%	30.5%	Down 10.0 points
Liberty Mutual	35.3%	27.9%	Down 7.4 points
Nationwide	48.6%	32.2%	Down 16.4 points
Progressive RV Insurance	39.2%	21.4%	Down 17.8 points
State Farm	70.9%	54.6%	Down 16.3 points
Travelers	64.9%	51.9%	Down 13.0 points
USAA	74.1%	57.9%	Down 16.2 points

American Family and Progressive are excluded from this table because they were not tracked as standalone entities at either the July 2026 baseline or the September 2026 current period; their only recorded observations came in August 2026 under those names, and appear in the Historical Measurement Record below.

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Leadership shifted within the period even though USAA holds the position at both endpoints. State Farm overtook USAA in August 2026, posting a category-leading 78.8%, before falling to 54.6% in September 2026 — a single-month decline of 24.2 percentage points, the steepest of any tracked brand this period. USAA's own August-to-September decline was 20.2 percentage points, smaller than State Farm's, which is why USAA re-emerged as the September leader. Travelers declined 15.6 percentage points from its August level to reach 51.9% in September.

Erie Insurance and Nationwide were the only two brands to decline in both August and September relative to the prior month, rather than showing an August increase followed by a September reversal. Erie Insurance moved from 41.9% in July to 40.1% in August to 27.4% in September; Nationwide moved from 48.6% to 47.7% to 32.2% over the same span.

Largest Decline: Progressive RV Insurance

Progressive RV Insurance's valid recommendation coverage fell by 17.8 percentage points to 21.4% in September 2026 from 39.2% in July 2026 — the largest baseline-to-current movement of any tracked brand this period. The brand's August 2026 figure is not comparable on a like-for-like basis: in that month the brand was tracked separately as "Progressive," which posted 61.9% valid recommendation coverage, while the "Progressive RV Insurance" entity recorded 0.0%. Comparing July 2026 directly against September 2026 avoids that naming inconsistency and shows coverage falling by close to half.

Category Leader: USAA

USAA led the benchmark with 57.9% valid recommendation coverage in September 2026, down from 74.1% in July 2026, when the brand also led the category. USAA also led in presence rate at 97.8% in September 2026. The gap to State Farm, the current second-place brand, was 3.3 percentage points. State Farm held a higher top-three rate (33.7%) and rank-one rate (23.1%) than USAA in September 2026, meaning USAA's coverage lead did not carry through to first-position recommendations.

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Recommendation Placement Snapshot

Coverage alone does not show how prominently a brand is recommended. The table below compares top-three and rank-one rates for the leading brands.

Brand	Sep 2026 top-three rate	Sep 2026 rank-one rate	Jul 2026 top-three rate	Jul 2026 rank-one rate
USAA	20.0%	7.2%	24.9%	8.1%
State Farm	33.7%	23.1%	38.8%	25.5%
Travelers	17.5%	8.6%	15.1%	7.7%

State Farm converted its coverage into first-position recommendations at a far higher rate than the other leading brands. Its top-three rate of 33.7% and rank-one rate of 23.1% in September 2026 both exceeded USAA's figures even though USAA held a higher coverage rate. Close coverage between the two leading brands can still hide very different first-position rates.

Buyer-Intent Distribution

All qualified observations in all three months fell into the Brand Recommendation class. The current public series measures brand-recommendation discovery and does not yet contain qualified observations in the other buyer-intent classes.

Buyer-intent class	Jul 2026	Sep 2026
Brand Recommendation	518	416
Pricing & Value	0	0
Multi-Brand Comparison	0	0
Total qualified observations	518	416

Historical Measurement Record

This is an evergreen benchmark URL. New measurements are added to the same report.

Measurement	Qualified observations	Coverage leader	Leader coverage	Largest coverage movement
Jul 2026	518	USAA	74.1%	Baseline month
Aug 2026	302	State Farm	78.8%	Progressive up 61.9 points
Sep 2026	416	USAA	57.9%	Progressive RV Insurance up 21.4 points

Evidence and Source Layer

The benchmark is built from prompt-level observations that retain the query, AI/search surface, answer, brand outcome, recommendation placement, sentiment, and, where exposed, citations or attributable evidence sources. Source presence is evidence about the information environment. It is not automatically proof that the source caused the recommendation.

Scope Boundaries

This public benchmark does not measure market share, attributable sales, every possible AI response, organic-search ranking, social mention volume, or private/sponsored channels. A metric movement alone does not establish causality. The benchmark cannot distinguish platform behavior from measurement effects, and it does not establish why any brand's standing moved.

About This Benchmark

The LLM Authority Index AI Market Discovery Index is a neutral, industry-level benchmark tracking how AI and search surfaces recommend brands across canonical surface families. All figures are drawn from audited monthly measurement capsules.

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